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Jacob, given Apple's control over pricing, I'd expect the iPhone to remain priced the same on all US carriers that offer it. Probably the least popular carrier will be the place you can get a new model fastest .

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No I know, but my AT&T upgrade eligibility doesn't arrive until September, so if the iPhone 5 comes out in June or July, then it would actually be cheaper for me to pay AT&T the ETF and get the fully subsidized price from Verizon, than to pay the "early upgrade" price to AT&T.

In other words, if AT&T wants me to even consider staying, they'd better "upgrade" my eligibility window.

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